By Ruslan Lienkha, chief of markets at YouHodler
Volatility and price movement:
In March, the volatility was higher than in April due to BTC reaching its new ATH. And now, we are experiencing price consolidation in the wide channel between 60k-72k. This means that the halving was mostly priced in even before the event.
At this point it is difficult to predict short-term volatility, because we do not know what factors will appear in the market in the next one to three months. Given the information available right now, I do expect further consolidation in the near future, and a decrease in volatility for a while before BTC leaves the current channel of $72k – $60k (see screenshot below). Breaking this channel in any direction will mean a significant increase in volatility, but it is difficult to say when this will happen – it can happen in one week or in five months.
Mining and fees:
Bitcoin is not a new asset anymore, so market participants can learn from past patterns of blockchain activity during halvings. Therefore, miners were mostly prepared for this recent halving, starting to sell coins in advance to compensate for future drops in earnings.
We did see a spike in transaction fees, but the situation didn’t last long, and it is improving quickluy. Also, for non-urgent transactions, note that there is no obligation to pay elevated fees for a faster speed. With normal average fees, you are still likely to move assets faster than a common bank transfer which sometimes takes a week.
ETFs:
I don’t see a direct impact from the halving on ETFs. The halving is a technical event that affects blockchain configuration, and ETFs are like gates, providing access for a broader audience to invest in Bitcoin.
So ETFs and the halving are both positive factors supporting the price in their own ways, creating a kind of synergy. I believe both factors will have a long-term effect because supply limitations and the broadening of possible capital flow are crucial for BTC’s future growth.